Our team recently attended the Soil Association trade conference again for 2024. Reflecting on the event, there was a much greater feeling of collectiveness in the organic community than there was in 2023 for the launch of 'Organic For All'. Allowing 12 months for the campaign to bed in means that there is a more 'mission-led' focus to some of the conversations we had that felt more about the 'global good' than individual commercial success.
There was one question that left us scratching our heads though, and as researchers working all the way along the supply chain, we wanted to unpick it.
It starts with Europe’s ambitious goal of converting 25% of its farmland to organic practices by 2030, rooted in the desire to promote sustainable agriculture and meet growing consumer demand for eco-friendly food. With 18.5 million hectares already under organic cultivation, representing just 4% of the continent’s total farmland, achieving this target will require significant expansion and strategic effort. But that is the elephant in the room.
Like a looming essay deadline or the exam you have failed to revise for, the deadline is approaching and we are clearly in the denial stage.
Organic Farming's Growth Potential and Challenges
The organic sector offers numerous environmental benefits, such as improved biodiversity, reduced pesticide use, and enhanced soil health. Countries like Spain, Germany, and Italy have become front-runners in adopting organic practices. However, to meet the 25% goal, apply some basic maths and you will see that an additional 97 million hectares of farmland must be converted.
While this expansion appears attainable, the real challenge lies in maintaining a delicate balance between supply and demand. For farmers to take the risk of converting to organic farming (a five-year process if you were wondering) , which can involve lower yields and higher production costs during the transition period, there needs to be confidence that the market will support their produce at higher prices. At the same time, consumer demand for organic products must continue to grow, but not outpace supply, which could lead to shortages that dampen consumer interest.
The UK’s Organic Journey and the Tightrope Walk of Supply and Demand
In the UK, the organic sector occupies a smaller share of agricultural land—about 2.9% as of 2022, with 508.6 thousand hectares under organic management. The sector has seen slow but steady growth, with organic land increasing at around 0.4% per year (Defra).
Given this trajectory, reaching 25% organic farmland in the UK by 2030 will require a considerable boost, potentially through stronger governmental incentives and subsidies.
However, growth alone will not ensure success. The UK organic sector, much like its European counterparts, faces a critical "tightrope walk" between expanding supply and maintaining demand. If the supply of organic products exceeds demand, prices may drop, threatening the profitability of organic farming and discouraging new conversions. Conversely, if demand grows faster than supply, consumers may face shortages and higher prices, dampening enthusiasm for organic goods. A careful balance must be maintained to encourage more farmers to convert while ensuring that organic products remain accessible and affordable for consumers.
Speculating on the Future: What Will It Take for the UK to Achieve 25% Organic?
To achieve the 25% target, the UK must address both supply-side and demand-side challenges. On the supply side, farmers need financial support, technical guidance, and market access to ease their transition to organic methods. On the demand side, efforts must be made to ensure organic products are affordable and readily available to consumers. A growth rate of around 1.5% annually, with policy incentives and sustained consumer demand, could see the UK hitting its target within 15 years
If these factors are aligned—consistent market demand, governmental support, and stable prices—the organic sector in the UK could experience the rapid growth necessary to meet the 25% target. This would not only benefit farmers but also consumers and the environment, paving the way for a more sustainable and resilient food system.
Conclusion
The journey to 25% organic farmland across Europe and the UK is not just about expanding acreage; it’s about balancing supply and demand to ensure that organic farming remains economically viable for farmers and affordable for consumers. The sector’s success hinges on walking this tightrope—ensuring that supply grows in tandem with demand, allowing the market to thrive without creating surpluses or shortages. With coordinated efforts, organic farming could be a cornerstone of Europe's sustainable food future.
We believe there is only one way to do that, know your consumers, know your farmers and work on understanding the key drivers that get both making the switch. That's before we even touch on the regen movement...
Perhaps now is the time to mention, for those who have made it this far that our report on the drivers for organic purchasing and the say-do gap in organic is being published by Defra later this year. Sign up for our newsletter if you want to be notified when it comes out!
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